After years of rapid home price growth, it’s natural for buyers to wonder: Are prices finally going to fall—or are we headed for a housing market crash?

According to Grant Edmondson of GrantEdmondsonMortgage.com, the reality isn’t as dramatic as some headlines (or social media posts) might suggest.

Here’s what’s really going on in the market—and what buyers need to know moving into 2026.

The Crash That Isn’t Coming

Every few months, a viral post or video predicts a massive market correction. But so far, the data just doesn’t support that.

“Most major analysts—including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae—expect home prices to remain stable or continue rising modestly into 2026,” says Grant Edmondson. “That’s because the fundamentals are still strong.”

Unlike 2008, today’s housing market is not fueled by risky loans or oversupply. In fact, the opposite is true.

Low Inventory Is Still Driving the Market

At the heart of the housing story is a simple equation: demand remains strong, and supply is still way too low.

“There just aren’t enough homes for sale,” explains Grant Edmondson on GrantEdmondsonMortgage.com. “And until that changes, prices are unlikely to fall in any meaningful way.”

Even with higher mortgage rates impacting affordability, the shortage of available homes is keeping values supported in most markets. While the pace of appreciation has slowed, prices are still trending upward in many areas.

Local Corrections? Yes. A National Collapse? No.

Of course, not every market moves the same way. Some overheated areas may see slight pullbacks or price adjustments, especially where affordability is stretched.

But a nationwide crash like we saw in 2008? Very unlikely.

“Real estate is local,” says Grant Edmondson. “Some cities may flatten out or dip slightly, but a broad market crash just isn’t what the data shows.”

Should You Wait to Buy?

Waiting for a major price drop might feel smart—but it could backfire.

If prices don’t fall and rates continue climbing into 2026, the home you can afford today might be out of reach tomorrow. And if you’re waiting for a 20% discount, you could be sitting on the sidelines for years.

Instead, focus on what you can afford now, in today’s market.

“Timing the bottom is almost impossible,” advises Grant Edmondson. “You’re better off finding the right home and locking in a payment that fits your long-term goals.”

The Bottom Line

The housing market isn’t crashing—it’s normalizing.

Yes, affordability is tight. And yes, the pace of growth is cooling. But that doesn’t mean a dramatic drop is coming.

If you’re ready to buy, talk with a trusted mortgage advisor to understand your budget, your local market, and your long-term options. Because in 2025, the smart move isn’t waiting—it’s planning.

Sources: FreddieMac.com, Realtor.com, NAR.realtor, CNBC.com